Thursday, February 01, 2007

World after microsoft

Like it or not, Microsoft has a big impact on the world. A lot of people will love to see Microsoft close. And a lot of people will say, its not gonna happen in our lifetime. I don’t think on those lines. But I did get a weird thought and that’s what this is about, What happens to the world after Microsoft?

Scene (lets say around mid 2008)

# Vista and office 2007 sales never took off
# Microsoft looses heavily in Internet Technologies
# Xbox looses out to PS3
# Zune survives iPod but is not enough
# Looses few lawsuits accounting into hundreds billions (again a wild shot)

Microsoft share prices crashes. (Bill Gates is no longer the richest man)

THE IMPACT

A Microsoft exit will leave a very big vacuum in everything, perhaps the biggest that history have ever seen. Thousands of small IT firms working on primarily in Microsoft technology will be either forced to make a technology shift, or exit, or may have to work on some scrap maintenance work. Thousands of developers who have worked their guts out in MS technologies will have to adapt or perish.

This will cause upswing in demand for non MS personnel and solutions. The high demand and low supply will push the salary of these people and prices of their solutions beyond affordability of many business houses. This will in turn slow the growth of these business houses.

A Microsoft exit will slow the research in high performance hardware. The demand for high performance hardware from home segment might virtually become 0. Coz most of them wanted high end h/w to run their slow MS Systems. Sales of PCs will drop drastically as well, as laymen will not be very much keen to learn and adapt to non MS OS. This will slow down major world economies and will start a global recession

What else can happen??? Shoot weird thoughts

16 Comments:

Blogger Jeff said...

nice blog....keep posting...

7:24 AM  
Blogger dev said...

then the new wave will emerge.. linux will come 2 rescue.. with probramming heads creating a new linux version. that can handle the MS aplications...

11:04 AM  
Blogger Dhawal Kapadia said...

linux, the next wave is on cards for long now. but somehow, linux never managed to get to laymen. thats where windows is so successful.

Also linux training is a bit expensive. not many corporates will be able to convert their staff

2:27 AM  
Blogger Samar Shah said...

simply devil (thought) and typical dhawal(deed)!!! He he he!!!

Seriously I agree to every bit of it.

Bravo Devil!

8:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let’s hope Microsoft be the number one in future.

2:22 AM  
Blogger Ankit Dave said...

weird idea... !!

not going 2 happen..

ppl r sometimes jealous for the ms achievements..

2:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Though a very wierd thought.....
And this never gonna happen as far as ms is concerned....but
definatly its a food for thought.

2:03 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Microsoft may not but windows will , vista will … may be a different name…

7:36 AM  
Blogger The Roaming Lens said...

This is to some extent based on the assumption that while the exit happens, everyone else will be waiting in the wings just watching it.

In reality, if microsoft fails, it would probably be because of a Google or an Apple changing the rules of the game and pulling the rug completely under their feet.
Eg; Google building an OS which
- is free
- works on i86 at the very least
- includes everything that any user might ever need
- can be installed by non-geeks
- has a big developer following.

Thats a far cry from what google seems to be doing, ie, betting on everything online. True, gears might be a first step, but at this rate, it will be a loooong time before they find that magic lever they can pull.

Anyways, back to the developers having to beg on the streets, i believe that if you are a true developer, you are not a one trick pony. You can code java just as well as you can code .net.

You better be.... :-)

7:38 AM  
Blogger Hasmukh said...

In worst case, I believe MS will make all their softwares free.

Wht ever would be the impact I would love to see that !! ;-)

3:17 AM  
Blogger Dhawal Kapadia said...

As Goutham puts it neatly, “There are few big leaps of faith before the article was written”. I wouldn’t argue with that. Neither would I argue with the fact that Google is still far from replacing Microsoft is Google is not worried about developing an OS.

But I guess the winds of change are already blowing. These days we are getting express editions from MS for dev purpose. This was never the case in the past(my computer background is just 3 yrs, I might be wrong here) Microsoft is trying real hard to catch up with lot of others people in Internet Technologies. They are still far away from having a nice popular search engine. SQL Server is radically modified but the performance issues are still evident

And many ASP.Net developers are just like lost birds who flew from ASP 3.0 but lost their bearings. Web 2.0 scares them. They can’t tell what an interface is. With the simplicity that Microsoft developer platform offers them they are surviving as developers. They will have a real tough time after Microsoft…

I am planning to learn a lot of things in free world. Just waiting for my new Dell machine which is due in another 15 days. I am surely not the one trick poney

3:25 AM  
Blogger Unknown said...

Being pretty honest it will never happen in my life…
B’coz Microsoft spread their legs in market like no other companies ever have.
The most important step which taken by Microsoft was introduced themselves in Education with lots of certification. Still Microsoft is big banner in small & medium scale industry only, where big organization still believe on UNIX, ORACLE, IBM. There are more effective name rather then Microsoft.

And at last for ‘TRUE’ Developer no difference between ‘.net’, ‘java’ & ‘C++’
So guys cheer up nothing to worry about.

3:32 AM  
Blogger prasad said...

Thought itself is very hypothetical. But if it’s to happen, it will be only if someone comes out with better & free OS (at least to start with) and programs with excellent user-friendly UI may be with some artificial intelligence. Also free training provided by these software vendors to the MS developers and users. If this is to happen then only Microsoft will go. Which is far from happening……. Good Luck…

3:33 AM  
Blogger Dhawal Kapadia said...

i m not the only one thinking on these lines. take a look at the following link

http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html

1:40 AM  
Blogger Dhawal Kapadia said...

microsoft goof ups

http://www.theserverside.net/news/thread.tss?thread_id=42426

10:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work.

9:28 AM  

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